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Jun 19, 2023

Solid State Batteries and the Kiss of Death for Gas Powered Cars, Hype or Reality?

• • • Numerous articles cite an alleged breakthrough by Toyota that will be the kiss of death for the gasoline engine. Some of us are skeptical. Hype or Reality? There are at least a dozen articles,

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Numerous articles cite an alleged breakthrough by Toyota that will be the kiss of death for the gasoline engine. Some of us are skeptical.

Hype or Reality?

There are at least a dozen articles, all touting a 2027 delivery schedule. I also found a couple of far more believable articles.

Skepticism From CleanTechnica

CleanTechnica reports Toyota Claims Solid-State Battery Has 745 Mile Range, 10 Minute Charging Time

Hyperbole alert: The following news will evoke all the hackneyed words and phrases that so often are used to talk about new battery technology. Prepare for a flurry of “game changer,” “holy grail,” and “This changes everything” statements. Yet if the news today from Toyota is true — emphasis on if — the path of the EV revolution is about to be altered forever. The fact that it comes from Toyota, a company we have been lambasting for years because of its refusal to take electric cars seriously, makes this news all the more surprising.

Last month, Toyota announced it has a new electric car strategy. Around the CleanTechnica latte bar, the general consensus is that it’s about damn time.

Now just a few weeks later, Toyota is telling the world it has made a technological breakthrough that will allow it to cut the weight, size, and cost of batteries in half. Think for a minute. If true, what might the implications be for the EV revolution? And no, you are not allowed to include the words “game changer” in your response.

CleanTechnica readers, being the well-informed people they are, are aware that the leap from the laboratory to commercial production is often long and difficult. If Toyota has made progress in that area, that is indeed something to be celebrated. But once again, we have to emphasize, that is a big “if.”

David Bailey, a professor of business economics at the University of Birmingham, told The Guardian that if Toyota’s claims are accurate, it could be a landmark moment for the future of electric cars. “Often there are breakthroughs at the prototype stage but then scaling it up is difficult. If it is a genuine breakthrough it could be a game changer — very much the holy grail of battery vehicles.” Congratulations to Bailey for using two of the three most trite phrases about new technology in one sentence.

Despite this most recent announcement, Toyota is still committing substantial resources to developing hydrogen fuel cell technology. The company said last month it will establish a Hydrogen Factory to develop fuel cell technology further, particularly for commercial customers. Mercedes announced recently that it is building electric buses that have onboard fuel cell range extenders supplied by Toyota. The company says the focus of its hydrogen efforts will be markets in Japan, China, and Europe.

Until Toyota begins to share some details about its new solid-state battery technology, its announcements must be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. Will it change course and become a leader of the EV revolution? “We’ll see,” said the Zen master.

Semi-Solid-State Batteries Will Precede Solid-State Ones

AutoEvolution is also skeptical. It says Semi-Solid-State Batteries Will Precede Solid-State Ones, Here’s Why You Should Care

People don’t really care what’s under the bonnet, but they care if the car is expensive to run, or if it can get them from point A to point B with no hassles, or if the interior space is more than enough no matter how long or short the next trip might be. For most drivers out there, the technology propelling the car is of no importance as long they can travel those 400-500 miles between refueling/recharging and don’t have to wait too long to refill/recharge the tank/battery.

Well, this is the super batteries promise: to match conventional cars’ benefits in terms of range and refueling convenience. At some point, they will probably deal with the price discrepancy also. But for now, let’s agree not to call them “super” because it’s an embarrassing marketing trick and creates high expectations. How about “solid-state”, because it sounds technical but not complicated, it’s easy to remember, and it’s got two “s” from “super”, right?

For those of you who were dormant in the past decade or so, the usual lithium-ion battery basically consists of two electrodes separated by a liquid electrolyte allowing electrons to pass through it, thus creating energy for the electric motor to propel the EV. A solid-state battery’s main difference is replacing the liquid electrolyte with a solid one. And just like magic, you’ve got double the range and charging times ten times shorter.

Of course, things are much, much more complicated than that. But this is the next big step in battery tech. Unfortunately, as I explained at the beginning of 2023, solid-state batteries are not around the corner. The industry’s realistic expectations are to deploy large-scale commercially viable technology around the end of this decade.

Well, ladies and gents, in June, the not-too-long-ago anti-EV Toyota jumped on the EV bandwagon with a very bold EV strategy, stating it will soon bring 600 miles-range battery electric cars to the market.

Then, at the beginning of July, the same Toyota made some waves stating that the company is working hard on a solid-state battery capable of up to 745 miles (1,200 km) range and only 10 minutes charging time. This battery should go into production starting in 2027.

I’m sorry for my reluctance. It’s hard to believe it’s only a coincidence that Toyota just came upon a battery breakthrough in the midst of a focus shift forced by shareholders. I want this to be true, but I also know that solid-state battery promises hit major problems, like dendrites formation. More, solid-state technology evolution didn’t occur overnight. It required a very long time, many experiments, and a lot of money.

In April, at Auto Shanghai 2023, Chinese CATL, the biggest battery manufacturer in the world, announced its proprietary “condensed battery”, with an impressive energy density of up to 500 Wh/kg. While it’s marketed as a solid-state battery, it actually uses a polymer gel-like electrolyte. So, this is another semi-solid-state battery, and CATL intends to mass-produce it starting sometime at the end of this year.

NIO is a Chinese EV manufacturer known for its swap-battery station network. It looks like it’s ready to offer its customers a new solid-state battery option starting this summer. The 150 kWh battery pack is supplied by its partner WeLion and promises up to 40% more energy density than the current 100 kWh Li-ion battery. Of course, NIO “forgot” to mention that this is a semi-solid-state battery with a hybrid electrolyte.

“Solid-state” syntagm creates high expectations in the mind of consumers and investors. But semi-solid-state technology is just an improvement of current battery technology. A pretty big improvement, I might say, but definitely not a game-changing one.

I always say the devil is in the details. Not using the “semi” term may seem like a harmless detail. But not living up to customer expectations – when the industry emphasizes the big advantages of solid-state batteries over conventional ones – it seems like a very bad marketing plan. Or simply dumb ignorance.

Please note that Toyota is so convinced of its solid state technology that it continuing research in hybrids, fuel cells, plug-in hybrids, regular batteries, and semi-solid state batteries.

Well, not to worry, I am sure fusion is just around the corner too.

Concern Over Mars

This is getting serious. Am I the only one concerned about climate change on Mars?!I demand action. When are we going to do something about this? https://t.co/B9GS8uT0fB

The Green Deal in the EU Goes Unfunded, Expect a Total Collapse

Meanwhile, please note The Green Deal in the EU Goes Unfunded, Expect a Total Collapse

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Mike Shedlock

Carbon fuels are dense, portable, economical, and safe.

Experimental life without fossil fuels was as tried five hundred years ago. Life then was solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.

Safe? Take a sip, or rub a little in your eye, or bring an open flame near it.

Yeah, and a good while back it was “economical” too.

CO2 is a plant nutrientOptimum CO2 for plants is about 800 to 1000 ppm

Today we are about 400 ppm

Below 200 ppm green plants start to die.

my favourate comment! thanks

Unfortunately, human’s don’t photosynthesize.

…yet!!

🙂

Toyota’s engineering and manufacturing is best in class. Toyota is also quite conservative with the use of hyperbole to trumpet “breakthroughs” that are vaporware. It is highly unlikely that the announcement was a pile of BS.

Clearly, Tesla has the best engineers. Every car maker is trying to copy them. And Toyota has been making false claims about their technology advancements for the past decade.

The US Electrical grid is pathetic as well. Its not even a grid in most places. Prone to epic blackouts and easily hacked

The electric car game changing moment has already happened. I have 300 miles of range, charge at home and it costs about $20.00. 1/10 the number of moving parts and have had essentially no mechanical issues. Time to short all the quick change oil outfits, muffler shops, radiator shops et al.

There are several massive hurtles to overcome EVs going mainstream across America. For now, EVs are only affordable by the top 20% earners in America. The way new car prices are going, it won’t matter if the cost of the batteries are cut in half over the next 5 years or so. The continued price increases of cares in general will simply erode those savings down to nothing.

America has a housing, car, insurance, healthcare inflation crisis.

The solution is a big recession, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards, outside of some black swan event. 4%+ core PCE inflation is probably well entrenched through at least mid ’24.

EVs don’t cost any more than other cars now. I just bought a Tesla Model 3 for under $44k bottom line. Will be about $36.5k after $7500 tax credit. The average new car is about $50k now before taxes and destination.

ummm, no offence but we are paying for that tax credit. it did not come off a tree.

I’m just paying less in taxes. No different than any other deduction.

yes, and guess who makes up the difference..other tax payers.So basically we all pay for it. So not counting it as part of teh cost is errenous.

Correct. Basically all ICE drivers are subsidizing EV drivers.

If EV is truly ready for prime time then it should no longer need subsidies. That fact it still needs 7500 says it’s not close to being ready yet because in no way can the government subsidize every new car in America to the tune of 7500 (which would happen if only EV’s were sold).

We’re not paying for it. We’re still paying for the Vietnam war.

This falls on people 5 or 6 generations hence.

I agree. We are all paying for everyone else buying EVs. And, the latest story is that EVs are starting to pile up on lots. No surprise there.

Next, I don’t think everyone will be surprised if in about 5 years the $7,500 tax credit is ended 5 years early due to our ever-increasing national debt.

I’m like a lot of people that believe there’s going to be some ceiling (% of new car sales) that EVs are plateau at. The last mile barrier (home charging) will for many years be a massive barrier.

Just bought a model 3 to go along with my Y. My auto insurance went from about $3k/yr to about $100/mo with tesla insurance. I think next month my bill will be $91. They monitor my driving and adjust every month. My son and I both work from home and don’t drive a lot. And I drive safer knowing they’ll know if I follow too close or speed too much.

Charging from home is great. Never have to worry about getting gas and it costs a lot less. The only downside is the car uses electricity sitting in the garage. Not much. Maybe 1%/day. And to boot, Tesla makes the safest cars. There are no new cars that are remotely close to Tesla for the cost.

My wife drives hers like a demon… started out at $100, but is up to $130. She earned it.

Still not bad. Get a quote from say Geico. It will be at least 2x.

That’s hilarious, threaten to take the keys away…

I would, but I have to have her drive me in it because I’m even worse. Acceleration is a drug.

The Tesla insurance goes up driving after 10PM from what I heard. Not a big deal for most folks but the costs can get higher than standard insurance if one is hooting with the owls.

As for “amazing breakthroughs” highly unlikely but we’ll see. Popular Science made a good living selling the sizzle on this stuff for decades. None of it panned out. I found some of their old mags from the 70’s in my attic with articles on electric cars, solar panels, wind. What has really changed in 50 years? Solar panels aren’t that much more efficient, wind is a dead end and battery tech still has the same hurdles…meh.

And what about those that don’t drive that much like myself? It would be like putting a small hole in my gas tank and letting it drip out months on end. No. That is stupid. Gas can keep for years with a stabilizer. Can’t do that with a battery.

There have been a lot of breakthroughs since the 70s. Solar panels are now about 25% efficient. Back in the 70s they were under 10%. And they cost a lot less. Same with EV batteries. Way more efficient and way lower cost.

If you let a car sit for months, you’ll still have to jump start it. 1%/day costs less than 20 cents.

Some panels are exceeding 20% now.

Nix that, that you’d said “panels are 25% more efficient”

I researched this topic on solar efficiency since the 70’s. It has barely moved for the consumer panels. The NASA level ones absolutely have improved but nobody can afford those.

An EV parked is losing about 1% a day from what I read. A gas car is losing nothing. The battery for starting a gas car is not needed if you have a stick shift. I can park a stick shift for a couple years and start it in seconds. Put it in neutral, roll about 5 ft and pop the clutch. Can’t do that with an EV.

So you spent $37000 for the car, spend $1200 per year on car insurance and who knows what on interest, electricity and maintenance but let’s just use $38200 as a starting point.

$38200 invested in T-bills at 5.25% would generate $2000 per year in interest. After 10 years, that would be over $20k plus you keep your $34600 = $54,600k

You said you don’t drive too much but let’s assume 10 trips per month. An uber will probably run you $20 or less but let’s go crazy and say $30/trip = $300/month x 12 = $3600.

Seems it is not worth it to buy any car at all.

Can’t get much Uber for 20 bucks.Jus sayin.

$1200/year for 2 cars.

And I could take the bus everywhere and save even more.

Easy to see you don’t have kids or a girlfriend. No car no girlfriend.

And lives in an urban area, just shopping without a vehicle is a nightmare, even in the city.

Ricky Roy, A.K.A. “Two Bit Davinci” does a thorough breakdown here, everything from the cost and co footprint of LI batteries, maintenance to fuel mileage over the first three years.

There’s no comparison. –

https://youtu.be/Bh3jGQdZ03w

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I like EV’s. On target for certain circumstances. It should have been done 100 years ago. They are great for golf courses that’s for damn sure and city living.

It is however not going to work for other circumstances ok. I can honor this no problem. Can you? How about you are a widow and need a bunch of work done to your home but the neighborhood is dead. Almost nobody around to do work anymore in the area.

So what to do? Oh, maybe call your son who lives hundreds of miles away with an engineering degree with a gas truck who can haul equipment and tools? Yes. Sounds like a good idea maybe? Of course it is, it’s a great idea and it has worked out. I drive 450 miles one way with lots of tools and equipment and do the repairs. I don’t have to charge up. That is a waste of time. I want to do the work and spend some time with her. The time is more valuable to me. To each their own.

20 gallons of gas has about 670 kWh of energy. Even with the EV’s large edge in efficiency over an ice vehicle, it is going to take a very large investment in new electric generation and transmission capacity over (not just replacing oil, coal and natural gas generation with clean energy) and above what the US now has. This is a big barrier.

Single cars on the road are not a great solution either. Let’s say EVs are a better alternative(they are not yet) they still:-Cost A LOT of carbon just to make an EV-Rare earth metals etc are all in poor countries totally raped by miners and companies-A lot of the above are using child labor to get these metals. But liberals don’t see it so it doesn’t bother them-Charging is still an issue though looks like the TESLA standard is going to be the winner-Multiple people I have spoken to said their roadtrip will never involve an EV. Such a pain in the butt-If you run out of juice on the road, it’s a tow-All mileage estimates never take into account the mountains, hills etc.EV MASS TRANSIT would be a real gamechanger. We should be encouraging good reliable transit. I never needed a car in Switzerland at all. Mass transit isn’t just for poor folk which is the perception for Americans. Switching a fleet of gas cars for EV cars is just a high carbon disaster

How come no one ever points out that gas cars also use minerals that are likely coming from the same sources as EVs? A generator in a gas car is basically the same as an EV motor. It needs to same materials.

And there are many apps that show you exactly how to get from point A to B and where to charge along the way. Maybe you should tell the multiple people about it.

Did you know gas cars also get worse mileage going up and down hills? EVs actually likely do better pct wise since they’ll use regenerative breaking going down hills.

Toyota is full of it and is dragging the entire Japanese auto industry down with it.

Like the anti-scientific climate doomsayers who always say we’re 10 years away from the apocalypse, Toyota is always 5 years away from taking over the car industry with an unproven breakthrough. Toyota is rapidly losing sales. Along with Honda and the others. And they have no production EV platform. They’re heavily in debt and are doomed.

There’s no doubt that there will be shift to solid state batteries, but Toyota will have to deliver a lot information & working pre-production runs over the next 12-18 months for this to move from theoretical to yes it’s coming in ’27.

I will say this. America appears to be falling behind China / CATL and others in terms of solid state batteries. QS, Solid Power & Amperis are all examples of companies working on solid state batteries for years with nothing on the verge of shipping commercially.

And then you have Tesla who appears to have not roadmap to solid state batteries. You’d imagine they’ve got some sort of skunk works going. If not, I really wonder how competitive their EVs will be in 5 years in terms of range & cost.

Range is less interesting than capacity, you can build a 50 mpg car or a 10 mpg car.

So let’s take a 150 kWh battery charged in 10 minutes, or 1/6 of an hour. That’s 900 kw of electrical load for one charging station. A standard 200 amp 240 Volt electrical service to an all- electric house is 48 kw.

So what voltage is this? If we take it at 240 V that 900 kw is 3750 amps. What size conductor do I need for that? Is there an electrician in the house?

What voltage

Rapid charging will only happen at charging stations. You don’t need it at home. At home you plug it in over night and in most cases will be fully charged in the morning. If your house has a clothes dryer, you can use that circuit to get 30 amps. That’s what I do. You just can’t charge and run the dryer at the same time. Not an issue. I actually set it to charge at 26 amps because by default it tries to pull 32 amps and it will sometimes trip a breaker since the breaker is 30 amps. Never had an issue at 26 amps.

What happens when everyone on the block, and every other block, turns on their clothes dryer and the oven and the air conditioner and the toaster oven – for a few hours every night except Saturday.

Asking for a friend.

The current system only works well for the current population of EV owners.

just as many countries are clamping down on the public using fireworks;)

Can’t wait for the show!

Do we already get brown-outs just from the number of AC units running at the same time?

The cars are charged at night, when it’s cool and demand is low.

@Zardoz – Where I live there are a lot of nights that require air conditioning all night during the summer and early fall. Additionally, many electricity providers are advocating running home air conditioning at night and in early morning to “pre cool” your home and help with load balancing. Some have programs to reduce costs if you sign up.

The same thing that happens now. I can’t run the dryer and charge at the same time because they run off the same outlet. Not because it will overload my house or neighborhood.

I see.So if you have an electrician simply wire up another outlet, and if all of your neighbors do the same, there will be no problem?

LOL!

Electrical code accounts for this when homes are wired, it assumes max use.

Yes…and ironically, the better the battery/charging technology gets, the more strain on the grid for fast charging.

To meet Toyota’s claimed performance:

745 miles of range divided by 3.5 miles per kWh = 213 kWh

213 kWh moved from grid to battery in 10 minutes = 213/(1/6 hours) = 1,277 kW of electric load.

That does not include the substantial charging losses due to heat generation, so including losses you’re looking at 1.5 megawatts per charger.

That is for a “middle of the road” vehicle at 3.5 miles/kWh.

Yes I know that a lot of people will be slow charging at home or at the workplace.

But still, take a gas station that now has 16 gas pumps. Even if the 16 pumps get replaced with say four chargers, that is 6 megawatts of utility load per average station.

Everything Toyota says about EVs is BS. But even if the future has these chargers, enough amperage can be delivered. Worst case is the stations have batteries to handle peak draws and recharge during down times.

I am starting to get the gist of your underlying message KidHorn: Buy Telsa or you are doomed. Got it. think the broader discussion is more interesting. Things evolve.

People like you thought no one would buy cars because grass is free and grows everywhere. And thought smart phones would never catch on because as soon as someone’s house caught on fire and their phone was at 0%, everyone would throw their phone away and hook up land lines again.

There are no technological issue with EV adoption that can’t be easily solved.

By delivering the standard 12.5 kilovolt (6.25 kilovolt to ground) to every household we can easily resolve this problem. Then 900kW only needs 72 amperes per leg.

This might require a bit of restructuring and better insulation, but every improvement has costs. It would put a lot of folks to work for a while.

And at 12.5kV you can still use those thick rubber gloves to recharge your car and not have to use a hotstick to handle the cable.

Plus fewer substations and transformers will be needed.

Just a thought. /s

that only works for those that have a parking. for many urbanites, this is not an option available to them. Instead, they need to find a parking spot with a charger. park there and charge and make sure to return on time when it is done to park elsewhere (to avoid penalties) – I am not sure a good solution exists yet.

Put in chargers that take a credit card. Like parking meters now. Most complexes have designated parking spaces. Just add whatever is drawn to their electric bill.

Where there’s a market, there’s a way.

that is already the case. the point is, after charging is finished, you are blocking a charging point that another user needs. (again in dense urban environments this is an issue.)

Mental image of a future city blocks with extension cords run out to parked cars from windows…

Parking meters with cords for recharging while you park.

I don’t want any 900kW shenanigans going on anywhere near my house.

Even if the conductors were thick enough, even if the higher voltage could be delivered, how many such ‘home charging stations’ could our present infrastructure support?Right now many areas of the US have challenges delivering enough power with today’s infrastructure. How will all of that power be produced? What type of power plants would be capable of delivering that energy?So many questions. So few answers.

Solar panels now cost less per KWH than fossil fuel plants. And the gov’t will give you a 30% tax credit. Many are going to install solar to alleviate some of the load on the grid.

Then build it out. The network of gas stations and fuel trucks delivering 10 different types of gas to them didn’t appear without investment in them. The same will happen this time.

Sorry bud, but you’re mistaken. You fall into the fallacy of thinking that just because everyone has an EV with a 300 mile range, everyone will be fully charging their battery every day from 0 to 100%.

The fact is that nearly everyone only need to top up the average 30-40 miles of daily driven miles every day. That can actually be easily achieved by letting the car charge overnight on just a standard 120v outlet. No fancy chargers or huge upgrades to the the electric grid needed.

Sure, if you happened to do a trip out of town or a rare occasion then you can fill up from 0 to 100 overnight on a dryer outlet but the vast vast majority of the charges in the real world are only going to be for the typical ~35 miles of daily driving range and that amount of energy can simply be trickle charged overnight on a level 1 charger (and when electric usage is otherwise the lowest anyway) and without overtaxing the grid.

Toyota said that they plan to use them in hybrids only at this point.

The existing batteries already power cars that absolutely smoke cars powered by the rube-goldberg contraption that the internal combustion engine is. Electric is the future.This has all happened before:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-did-people-think-steam-powered-cars-were-good-idea-180961872/

Toyota is also working on developing hydrogen powered engines, internal combustion engine that burns hydrogen instead of gasoline or diesel.

Another dead end.

Toyota recently made a “groundbreaking” announcement about hydrogen combustion, I think it was Youtube’s “Two Bit Davinci” / Ricky Roy who debunked hydrogen combustion for the fact that hydrogen’s high heat makes it too inefficient due to thermal loss, atop higher maintenance cost vs gasoline engines.

Hydrogen cells are a more promising story.

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simple chemistry. The oxidation energy of hydrocarbons will always be 40 to 75 times greater, either by mass or volume, than the maximum electrical potential between the most basic and the most acidic fluids used in any battery. Which makes it a vastly better way to store and transport potential energy. And thus always vastly cheaper and easier.

The government has been heavily pressing its thumb on the scale to make the two appear competitive, but this is a tax bill that will be paid by everyone, from now on. Even if the EV transformation is successful, you can count on the tax deductions to disappear and the road taxes to be added……

Breaking hydrogen-carbon bond does produce the best energy release by far and much more than batteries. Unfortunately for us the amount of these fossil fuels is limited so we have to go to something else that doesn’t entail burning something. That narrows it down to things that produce electricity like nuclear, wind and the like.

Wind is an inefficient form of solar.Hydro is a little more efficient solar.Nuclear is in a class by itself.

I am not too happy with wind, Ok with solar and like nuclear. ICE is inefficient and the supply of fuel finite.

You’re comparing voltage to BTUs. Doesn’t make sense.

My EV can get as much range as a gas car and while it does weigh more, it’s not 40 to 75 times as heavy. Maybe 30% heavier.

The only way to settle this BTU vs Voltage conundrum is to take it before the King of Engineering…. because ALL opinions are valid.

” …And thus always vastly cheaper and easier.”

While I understand your point about energy density, that does not explain how EV’s cost $.06 per mile, that’s the equivalence of $1.20 per gallon for a 20 mpg gas vehicle.

I think you’re conflating storage density with energy density, batteries are the “gas tanks” of EV’s, not the actual “gas”.

The reason EV’s are so much cheaper per mile is the cost of nat gas atop solar and wind, they’re all less than RBOB and they’re not manipulated by OPEC.

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EV’s are the kiss of death for US automakers. Everyone underestimates the inventory challenge of simultaneously running EV’s and ICE vehicles. It’s extremely difficult to plan production for two different platforms especially when you are dependent on fickle government subsidies to turn a profit.

Ford and GM will struggle mightily without taxpayer bailouts (in the form of subsidies). When taxpayer bailouts fail the government will be forced to bail them out directly. Wall Street seems to like them right now but I am staying away without being able to calculate the present value of future bailouts.

On top of this, China owns the supply chain and they have a clue.

It will be too late for Ford and GM by the time solid state batteries save the planet.

Most legacy auto makers are doomed. They can’t make EVs competitively and EVs will cost a less to make, cost less to own, and will perform better. Within 5 years, dealerships and manufacturers will have to go almost full EV or they’ll be done.

The EVs that qualify for the full $7500 credit are completely made outside China. Tesla has the most American made cars,

No one knows for sure if they are doomed or not.

There is no special technology in EV’s. You can simply buy one from any manufacturer and copy the technology in 5 minutes time.

Legacy auto makers simply have to commit to making EV’s on large scale which so far they have yet to do. But it’s not going to require a lot of R&D on their part, that’s already been done by Tesla and other EV makers. They just copy and fit into their vehicles.

A solar flare or a powerful enough EMP will render all EVs useless.

Yeah, and an EMP will kill the engine computer in all ICE cars made in the last 20-25 years.

All legacy auto makers are neck deep in debt. They’re all barely surviving. Now you have China being the worlds largest exporter and the export gap is only going to grow. The Chinese can make dirt cheap EVs and the manufacturing costs go down every year. They’re going to take a big chunk of the auto market. They already have outside the US. In parts of Asia, Chinese cars are the best sellers. They also has the worlds largest car market that will soon be effectively closed to many foreign auto makers. The legacy auto makers are all looking at sales collapses over the next 5 years.

What your saying here is that Chinese cars are going to replace all the legacy auto makers and that will ultimately include Tesla too because the Chinese will be able to manufacture cheaper than Tesla simply because they have a labor advantage.

The question is whether Europe and North America (and other places like Australia) eventually ban Chinese cars or put tariffs so high they effectively cost the same as the legacy auto makers (that’s what once happened with Japanese cars till they started making them here with US wages). Remember, these companies employ millions of people in North America and Europe and those people vote.

There is nothing simple about it. You are only going to sell so many cars per year. If you ramp up EV’s you have to ramp down ICE vehicles. You would have to write off huge amounts of ICE finished product and components and make a huge investment in EV inventory. And just because you have more EV’s on the lot relative to ICE vehicles doesn’t mean you are going to sell them and make money on them.

This is why Tesla has such a huge advantage over the legacy auto makers and why forcing EV’s down everyone’s throats is going to be the kiss of death for Ford and GM.

At some point I think we’ll be able to get off the shelf chassis and components to build whatever vehicle we want in a couple afternoons. It’s like the transition from tube computers to PCB ones… the former were hard to build, but any yahoo can plug in a few circuit boards.

“At some point I think we’ll be able to get off the shelf chassis and components to build whatever vehicle we want in a couple afternoons.”

While I wouldn’t go that far, I can easily see kits being sold that you might be able to ship to your mechanic to assemble. Cars, even electric, have a lot of heavy components and intricate components that require specialized tools and gauges.

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Components and tools and gauges. Oh, My!!!The supply of American gearheads is almost fully depleted.

If your computer fails, no one dies.

“Most legacy auto makers are doomed. They can’t make EVs…”

This is what makes TSLA such a good stock.

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Toyota might overcame silver batteries rust.

Silver oxide batteries are old news, not particularly energy dense, and very expensive.

I’m not an expert, but I’ve a great deal of noise about mining and materials for batteries if EVs become more common. Would this solid state (or semiSolidState) have a more accessible or affordable BOM (Bill Of Materials)? I would imagine that, if 2026 rolls around and this 2027 mass intro looks promising … EV sales could plummet as nobody wants to lay down $100K on yesterday’s tech.

THAT is the burning question, the first thing I did when I saw Mish’s headline was to search for what the solid state battery is comprised of, if it’s not Li, then it’s a huge deal.

The fact that I did that means a lot are doing that, I suspect that Toyota is pulling a PR stunt, though I’m sure they have something brewing.

Every week we have some breakthrough claims that actually aren’t claimed by the scientists who do it but by science writers seeking the ever elusive click. If you read the original paper or presentation they usually are much more low-key and cautious. This muddies the waters somewhat. A lot of research is being done and advances made so eventually we will have much better batteries but using which method I can’t say yet.

Agree, there’s an endless barrage of pseudo-science and woo-physics that science sites tend to eagerly push out to keep up views.

I have a list of sites and writers that tend to be more conservative, Youtube’s Two Bit Davinci and Veritasium are among those.

Sold state, capacitors, hydrogen, whatever. One thing is clear, electric, although the future for propulsion at least for cars, can only roll out globally if accessible by all and practical.Having charging stations “filling” your tank in 5 or 10 minutes will be the future. Many homes/apartments do not have the capacity or ability to do so (or have no parking), and it is unlikely our grid (again worldwide) would support it. Currently in Europe, many public parkings with chargings stations, only allow you to park there as long as you are charging. I don’t see anyone getting up at 3am, to park the car elsewhere. I see a mix of sustainable (ish) fuels, hydrogen and (next-gen) electic storage with the ability to re-charge “on the go” as we are used to with fossil fuels.I firmly believe that will come. As it stands, I am not convinced the current solutions are “green” enough for me. In the meantime, at least allow the hydrocarbon engine maufacturers to continue to innovate, rather than, by regulation and subsidies, force users to buy cars that will inevitably not be as long-living and likely not be compatible with what will follow. my 2 cents- in the meantime, I will take my MGA for a drive;)

We should be encourageing all innovation, politicians and “activists”(thise that have nought better to do) are not necessarily the best judges of how we find the best path to where we need to be.

I’m going to wager urban areas will come up with a solution for home charging, perhaps run cables from existing power lines to parking spots that can be charged to your home bill.

To charge a 100 kWh battery, which is on the top end of EV battery capacities, in 10 minutes you need a 600kW charger. Such chargers do not exist and probably will never exist as you are talking about 1500 Amps! Such a cable would be over 2 inches in diameter.

Not if the charging cable is made with room temperature superconductors.Think outside the barrel.

You’re in Luck! I sell room temperature semiconductors out of my house.

You could have multiple cables and/or multiple chargers running in parallel. But, you don’t have to fully charge for them to be useful. And not everyone will be fully charging. Some will be starting at 50% and some will only add 50% of capacity.

You are certainly the funniest for today.I suggest 10 cables to start with.

His strength is as the strength of ten because his heart is pure.

He is thinking outside the keg.

Tesla is making semi’s now and they’ll likely sell incredibly well. Which I’m sure you disagree with. Pretty sure they’ll have multiple charging connections.

The reason they’re expected to sell well is because electricity is a lot cheaper than diesel. And when you use several hundred dollars a day of fuel, it adds up quickly.

For driving around town, electric trucks are fine. You are already starting to see Amazon and other companies electrify their fleet.

So electric Semi’s for in town certainly makes sense. They can simply pick up the trailers at a truck stop outside town from the long haul semis that run between cities and will continue to run on diesel or potentially hydrogen in the future.

Pepsi is already using a lot of Tesla Semi’s for long range hauling. And they plan to fully switch over to them.

Don’t matter too much what they do with batteries if we don’t get some more electricity generation. They literally have to double the grid to do away with gasoline cars.

The main problems with current batteries are the weight, and the fact that the oxidant and reactant are in the same container so if something happens you get an uncontrollable fire. Gasoline cars can still burn, but at least with the reactant (gas) separate from the oxidant (air), traditional firefighting methods work. With batteries, no amount of water can separate the reactant and oxidant, which is why they are so hard to put out. And the more energy dense the battery, the worse the problem.

Solid state batteries shouldn’t have this problem, but you still have the potential for a short to discharge the entire battery in a very short time. If you’ve ever seen a transformer blow up, that might be a good reference.

Gas cars catch fire far more frequently than EVs. The only issue with fires were with some batteries made by LG. I think they’ve fixed the issue.

You can put up solar panels if the grid doesn’t keep up.

The future is the “anticipatory” battery.It is always charged before you need it.It is 117% efficient.This means that when you arrive you have more energy than when you left.Wondrous.And with AI it will tell you where to go.

The EV bubble might deflate along with BRK.B : Aug 16 2022 high to Nov 25 high 2022, for funfunfun.

Parallel from June 23 2022 Close.

I fanatically scan science news headlines and I’m going to wager the Li battery breakthrough (not necessarily the solid state one) is using a silicon compound anode.

Silicon is able to store 10X the power of standard graphite anodes, the problem until now is that silicon breaks down too rapidly.

There’s a been a recent development in silicon, an American company, Sila Nanotechnologies, has created a silicon anode that actually does allow charging in as little as 10 minutes, if you can supply that much current, it also increases range by 20%.

Personally, I find the 20% range increase disappointing, silicon can store up to 10X more than graphite.

.

There are currently cars that use silicon ion batteries. They aren’t as efficient as Li, but they cost a lot less. So you save some money and give up some range.

The plan is to mainly use them in grid storage where size per kwh isn’t much of a factor.

These “Titan silicon” batteries have only been proven, they’re not yet available, the boast 20% more storage, same weight/size.

These are still Li batteries, to quote their site – “…Sila was the first company to dramatically reduce swell and safely harness the powerful properties of silicon for commercial use in lithium-ion batteries with our nano-composite silicon.”

They also claim they can retrofit existing Li batteries (I bet it’s expensive)

Here:https://www.silanano.com/our-solutions/titan-silicon-anode

A pure silicon anode will yield 10x more storage, but silicon breaks down too fast to make them viable, this silicon compound doesn’t break down, but it only offers an increase of 20%.

My wager is that Toyota is going to use these, the “charges in ten minutes” claim is telltale, but the caveat is the ability to provide enough current to charge them that fast.

Still, 20% more is pretty good.

I’m more interested in Toyota’s “solid state” claim (not this one), info online is elusive, I can’t find anything that’s “proven”….maybe someone else can.

.

When ford came out with their models T and A the government did not have to subsidize the change from horses. People compared, and when it made sense for them, made the switch.New tech is always for the rich. remember the first vcrs? or pocket calculators?The bigger issue is putting all our eggs in the electricity basket and not holding it tight enough. Big 3 outside threats are cyber, physical attack and cme/emp. Thens there is all the internal issues on the supply side

Excellent logic is irrefutable.Therefore it’s apparent you don’t belong here with this group.But, please stick around.You’re needed.

Like it or not, the the gov’t has all sorts of tax incentives. EV credits are just the tip of the iceberg. Off the top of my head, I’ve gotten credits for a solar attic fan, a new refrigerator, and a heat pump hot water heater. I actually got 2x the credits for the hot water heater because I bought it in another county. The county I bought it in gave a credit off the purchase price and the county I live in gave me a mail in rebate. You’re a fool if you don’t take advantage.

I had a neighbor that popped out 3 or 4 kids and didn’t marry.The tax credits and other perks are amazing.Perhaps you should try it Kid, as you are so fond of griftting the Government.It just must be “free” money and doesn’t cost anyone anything.

Pro tip: this kind of story (“my friend”, “my neighbor”, etc) is never very plausible. But it works a little better if you at least know how many kids your supposed neighbor had, since you’re also claiming to know their tax situation somehow.

I have 3 kids. I can tell you that the perks in no way cover the costs of clothing/feeding/housing the little (and now one pretty big) monsters. If you’re popping ’em out in hopes of retiring to the couch to eat bonbons you’re in for a rude surprise.

The railroads and canal companies got enormous. Additionally the state and federal governments subventioned commerce on the rivers by dredging rivers and ports. They even straightened the Mississippi river in the 19th century to make it easier for steamboats to sail up and down it. That government did not subvention businesses back then is a downright falsehood that keeps popping up to supposedly prove a point.

Forget batteries that wear out. H2 is the future.——–Japanese researchers find a simple and affordable way to store hydrogenIt does not involve pressurized containers and can be retrieved at relatively low temperatures.Ameya PalejaCreated: Jul 10, 2023 09:55 AM EST

Researchers at the RIKEN Center for Emergent Matter Science (CEMS) in Japan have found a simple and affordable way to store ammonia, an important chemical in a range of industries. The discovery could also help in establishing a hydrogen-based economy.…https://interestingengineering.com/science/simple-affordable-way-store-hydrogen-perovskite

Jojo, Hydrogen loses 30% of the input energy during electrolysis, another 10% compressing it and another 30% expelling/converting it to electricity.

Sounds like this process might spare both the first 30% and 10% loss, but at the end of the article it describes the extraction process without mention of how efficient it is, unless I missed it.

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Put away the pom-poms. The power grid is still undersized for the foreseeable future, there are still not enough materials to meet goals, and China controls some critical materials and processes.

If this technology WERE to be available in 2027 and widely available in 2032, then there is a GREAT DEAL to fear. Namely, the power grids of the United States are scarcely capable to handle seasonal use of home air conditioners — they are nowhere near ready for the upscale in EV charging. It is the weak link in this otherwise exciting prospect, and hails the collapse of the grid and brownouts and blackouts in a civilisation hopelessly dependent on endless electricity supply. Back in 2009, advocates made an effort to get $40,000,000,000 of that ARRA money to build a super-grid, unifying the three grids, upgrading long-distance power cables from the current “leaky” ones that lost 50% of their energy to resistance heat, and make nationwide renewables possible. Naturally, all that money was wasted on graft and corruption, namely campaign paybacks for Obama’s election, than investing in something useful that would actually make EV transition smoother and less dangerous. But that’s how these things go. Politics is now incapable of seeing past the next election. The future is hopelessly now.

Dear Author, GM purchased an Israeli company that created software which detects incipient battery problems weeks before there’s a fire other serious incidents occur. Do you know anything about this?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-buys-israel-based-software-startup-detect-early-battery-defects-2023-06-30/

The batteries are already good enough for what 99% of car owners do, which is drive 2 miles to go to the gym, or 15 miles to work, or what have you (cue all the rednecks who want to pull their boats 1500 miles to Powell…)

EVs have gotten better and cheaper at an astounding rate. I have a 2017 Leaf and it seems completely antiquated and pathetic compared to what you can get now for 25% less than what it cost back then. This is a car I really like and which works great, mind you – but it’s got a fraction of the range of a newer EV, no bells and whistles, and charges slow as snot compared to what you can do now.

That’s in just 6 years. In 2027, Toyota notwithstanding, we’ll have sub $20k cars that go 500 miles on a charge or something if the trends continue. Hell, I wouldn’t be too surprised if pulling your boat to Powell was doable without gas by then.

The cybertruck might even exist at that point. But probably not.

Cybertruck is coming out this year. Supposedly the assembly lines are starting to run. Likely a limited supply this year and ramp up next year.

I was making a joke, since the Ctruck has been coming “next year” for a few years now. I bet it’ll finally come out this year too.

Regardless of climate change oil powered vehicles generate many other noxious gases… and… the source material is finite. Probably the majority of economically recoverable oil has already been extracted in just 100 years or so.

So surely we should be trying to replace it where we can and preserve existing resources for other uses which are harder to substitute oil for.

Which will probably be fuelling tanks and missiles. But maybe something useful as well.

I think people need to think about it like this – with an EV, you already have a gas station at your house (any 120v outlet), that sells gas for something like 75 cents a gallon, but pumps pretty slowly – maybe 5 gallons overnight. It’ll keep your tank topped off for super cheap but it won’t completely fill it.

If everyone gets an EV and does that, no big deal.

If you want to spend $500 or so, you can have your home gas station pump a lot faster, enough that you can get 30 gallons of that dirt cheap fuel every night. If everyone in the US does that every night, then yes, we’ll have a grid/power supply problem.

But we’d also have a pretty terrible problem if everyone in the country drove 400 miles and then filled their tank *every single day*.

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